The 10 key trends you should follow on the road to zero emissions are explored, in depth, in the recently published book The Road to Zero Emissions. The book is both informative and insightful . Both the history and the future of the truck and transport Industry up to 2050 and beyond, are described in great detail and in a very readable way.
The top 10 trends explored are:
- 1,000,000 electric LCV’s will be produced per annum from 2030. The volume of electric LCV’s produced will represent c. 40% of the global LCV output; hugely up from less than 2% in 2020.
- Short term the role of hybrid conversions will see the emergence of specialist tier suppliers working closely with OEM‘s. Examples of this in our book details the emergence of UK Company Electra and Dutch convertor EMOSS.
- Future zero Emission buses will be both electric and Hydrogen powered. Buses accommodate fuel storage requirements and re-fuelling demands effectively.
- Hydrogen needs to witness a dramatic fall in cost to be competitive with Diesel. Current cost per kilo is $12-15 and needs to be below $3 per kilo to match TCO – Total Cost of Ownership – operational cost goals. Doubts still remain for adoption by Heavy Trucks.
- Lithium will be superseded by Solid State battery technology from 2025. John Goodenough the American professor hailed as the inventor of Lithium-Ion battery technology. John Goodenough was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for chemistry in 2019. Goodenough is also the man behind the development of solid-state battery technology. Solid state batteries will be less dependent on critical rare earth materials, especially cobalt. Future Solid-State batteries will be lighter, faster charging cheaper, and less prone to self-combustion.
- The world is going to need 60-100 battery manufacturing Gigafactories to sustain the future demand for EV’s. The UK has zero investment as of 2020 in such a factory. If the UK fails to generate a minimum of 3 Gigafactories capable of generating up to 30GW hr capacity each the threat to over 200,000 jobs in the vehicle manufacturing industry are at risk.
- Those automotive manufacturers that establish public/private partnerships to develop innovative Energy Innovation Hubs, on the sites of redundant vehicle manufacturing plants, will be true leaders of change. The creation of FreightPorts to integrate Long Haul intercity with last mile urban intracity freight will enable truck manufacturers to seal large volume govt and municipal contracts.
- The Paris Agreement on Climate Change signed by nearly every nation in the world focused attention on the absence of the USA and threatened a carbon tax on products from the USA by the EU. Since the change in the US administration the idea of a carbon tax on non-compliant vehicles remains a fiscal option.
- Diesel will remain the fuel of choice for 70% of long-haul global freight movement. Despite rapid advances in alternative fuels to power vehicles, the IEA – International Energy Agency – forecasts just a 3million barrel per day reduction in future demand; down to 14 million from 17 million per day. Diesel still has a place in the market. So do Drivers.
- Do not eliminate the “Driver Experience “ from the product. The Death of Diesel has been wrongly forecast. MAN, Scania Heavy Trucks and clean diesel still have a future.
Find out more. Click here to get your personal copy of The Road to Zero Emissions, plus a free bundled e-book and a 20% discount!